Geopolitical Reconfiguration and Transformation of Security Strategies in the South Caucasus: A Regional Analysis

Abstract

The South Caucasus region is a very sensitive sector in the geopolitical rivalry of world powers. The security policies of Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan are shaped by internal political dynamics and complex external influences. The significance of the matter has been notably intensified by Russia’s belligerent attitude in Ukraine, escalating competition for energy security, heightened attention from NATO and the European Union, and the active participation of the United States in the Zangezur corridor. In light of this geopolitical context, the stance of the South Caucasus nations towards Russia and other external entities is undergoing substantial transformation: the post-conflict evolution of Karabakh post-2023, the increasing strategic estrangement between Armenia and Russia, and the emergence of tensions in Azerbaijan-Russia relations suggest the establishment of a new regional equilibrium. The United States' aggressive engagement in the Zangezur Corridor matter underscores the safeguarding of Armenia's territorial sovereignty while concurrently indicating an effort to mitigate Russian influence.

The essay offers a comparative examination of the national security plans of Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan, representing a notable and uncommon endeavour in the academic field. The research is grounded in the theory of regional security complexes, enabling the identification of various strategic positions of nations and their reliance on external influences. The emphasis is on the military equilibrium as a pivotal element in the regional security framework. The trilateral meeting of the leaders of Armenia, Azerbaijan, and the United States in Washington in 2025, along with the joint declaration, is significant and can be regarded as the commencement of a new phase in the advancement of peace and transport corridors in the region.